Motorists and commuters in South Africa face a mixed fuel price outlook for June, with petrol prices expected to rise once again while diesel users could see significant relief at the pumps.
According to the latest unaudited data trends, petrol prices are projected to increase by approximately R1.05 per litre, while diesel could decrease sharply—by around R2.62 per litre for 50ppm diesel and up to R3.60 per litre for 500ppm diesel.
Mixed signals from energy data
The Central Energy Fund’s most recent month-end indicators initially painted a more optimistic picture for consumers. At that stage, petrol was showing a potential decrease of around 46 cents per litre, while diesel reflected strong over-recoveries ranging between R4.93 and R5.56 per litre.
However, those gains have since been offset by a combination of global oil price movements and local cost pressures, shifting the outlook into a more divided outcome between petrol and diesel pricing.
Impact of fuel levies returning
A key factor influencing the June pricing structure is the phased removal of temporary fuel tax relief measures introduced earlier this year.
The National Treasury implemented temporary reductions in fuel levies in April to cushion consumers from rising international oil prices and currency volatility. These measures are now being reversed.
From June, R1.50 per litre is being reintroduced into the petrol fuel levy, while diesel will see an additional R1.96 per litre added back into its pricing structure. A further R1.50 adjustment is expected in July, which will fully restore the previous tax structure.
Analysts warn that while diesel may still benefit from strong international over-recoveries, the return of the fuel levy will limit the extent of price relief at the pump.
Expected pump prices
If current projections hold, petrol 95 octane could rise to approximately R26.81 per litre at the coast and around R27.68 per litre in inland regions such as Gauteng.
Diesel, on the other hand, is expected to decline significantly, with wholesale 500ppm prices potentially dropping to around R27.69 per litre in inland areas.
This divergence between petrol and diesel prices reflects broader global trends, where diesel demand and supply dynamics have eased more sharply than petrol markets in recent weeks.
Context: months of sharp increases
The June outlook follows several months of steep fuel price hikes that have placed pressure on households, businesses, and transport operators.
In April, petrol increased by R3.06 per litre, while diesel surged by R7.37. May brought further increases, with petrol rising by R3.27 per litre and diesel climbing by R6.19. These back-to-back adjustments have significantly raised transport and logistics costs across the economy.
Government response and long-term proposals
On the policy front, government continues to explore longer-term interventions to stabilise fuel prices. Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe has indicated support for the establishment of a new state-owned company aimed at improving fuel supply management and potentially reducing price volatility.
While such proposals are still in early stages, they form part of broader discussions around energy security, pricing transparency, and reducing reliance on global oil market fluctuations.
Outlook
With final official adjustments expected to be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources soon, motorists are advised to prepare for higher petrol costs but some relief at diesel pumps.
However, analysts caution that ongoing tax adjustments, currency volatility, and global oil price shifts could still influence final pump prices before the new rates take effect.
